What price will Bitcoin hit on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action over the past 48 hours has remained confined within a narrow band, with spot trading hovering near the $63,000–$65,000 range as of late May 2025. The 0% crowd probability assigned to this market reflects extreme uncertainty about whether Bitcoin will reach any specific price point on 26 May alone—a single-day outcome that depends on volatility spikes rather than directional conviction. Institutional flows have been modest, and options markets show relatively balanced positioning across strike prices, suggesting traders are hedging rather than committing to directional bets on that particular date.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin rarely experiences the kind of concentrated daily moves required to justify high probabilities on single-date price targets. Over the past two years, daily moves exceeding 10% have occurred roughly once every 6–8 weeks, typically triggered by regulatory announcements, macroeconomic data releases, or exchange-related events. The current 0% reading aligns with base rates: most single-day price targets assigned to Bitcoin settle as NO unless preceded by a scheduled catalyst.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for Federal Reserve communications in late May, any spot exchange-traded fund rebalancing announcements, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. The settlement window closes 27 May at 04:00 UTC, meaning the market captures only the 26 May trading session. Unless a major event materialises—such as regulatory action or a significant macroeconomic surprise—the probability is likely to remain depressed through expiry.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.