What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action over the past 48 hours has remained constrained within a narrow band, with spot prices hovering between $63,000 and $65,000 as of early June 2026. The 1% probability assigned to this market reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting a specific price point on a single day, particularly given Bitcoin's typical daily volatility range of 2–4% under normal market conditions. For a price target to settle YES, Bitcoin would need to hit a precise level on 13 June—a constraint that becomes exponentially harder to satisfy the tighter the price band specified in the market's full terms.

Historical precedent suggests single-day price targets in cryptocurrency markets rarely attract meaningful probability mass unless they sit within one standard deviation of the current price. During 2024–2025, Bitcoin experienced several days with 5–7% swings, yet hitting pre-specified price points on predetermined dates occurred by chance rather than predictability. The current 1% reading aligns with base rates for such narrow outcome windows, where randomness dominates directional conviction.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for scheduled macroeconomic data releases in early June—particularly US employment figures and Federal Reserve communications—which historically drive broader risk-asset repricing. Additionally, any significant movement in spot Bitcoin ETF flows or announcements from major institutional holders could shift intraday volatility, though such catalysts would need to align precisely with 13 June to affect settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.