In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential contest still more than two years away, prediction markets are actively trading Republican succession following Trump's constitutional term limit and Democratic primary contenders. Those who spot opportunities early in the cycle stand to benefit as the candidate pool contracts.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's ineligibility for a third term opens the Republican field wide:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency, aligned with Trump faction
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Florida governor with strong approval, recovery after 2024 primary setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist appeal, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-worker economic messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient space for fresh contenders to emerge
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading position, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence as Transportation Secretary
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California's chief executive, established national presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governor of crucial swing state Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of unforeseen challengers
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (virtually evenly matched at this early stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Participation in early 2028 markets provides:
- Greater volatility (heightened uncertainty creates scope for substantial gains from prescient positioning)
- Extended timeframes to maintain holdings whilst new information surfaces
- Chance to acquire candidates at lower valuations before significant developments shift odds
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit pronounced sensitivity to surprising developments and shifts in candidate participation.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows VPs make formidable nominees yet face no certainty. Bush Sr (1988) inherited Reagan's mantle; Gore fell short as the sitting VP in 2000. Prediction markets position Vance as the frontrunner without overwhelming dominance.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination markets conclude following their respective party conventions — customarily in July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Markets dedicated to Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary ordinarily commence 6-12 months ahead of those contests — visit PolyGram's political markets division for availability.