Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Super Typhoon Dolphin has already shifted into the Okinawa/Ryukyu approach lane, with the latest coverage saying the core is tracking west towards the island chain and could cross near Okinawa within about 24–48 hours. Recent reporting also notes the system has strengthened to a large, very strong typhoon and is expected to slow from 9 August, which would prolong the period when Japanese territory stays in the warning cone.[8][2]

The probability at 100% YES is in line with how closely the storm has been clustering around Japanese landfall scenarios in the guidance. Earlier track discussions showed a wide spread, but successive updates increasingly favoured Japan’s southern islands, especially Okinawa and the Ryukyus, rather than a clean miss to the west or a quick turn away from Japan.[1][7][13] Comparable western Pacific systems that skim Okinawa often resolve on the basis of a small wobble in the final approach, because a few dozen kilometres can decide whether the centre actually crosses land or stays offshore.

For traders, the key catalysts are the next JMA position advisories and any high-confidence landfall language from Japanese or international outlets, because this market resolves on the centre physically crossing Japanese coastline, not just causing peripheral impacts.[8] Watch for changes in the steering ridge to the north, any slow-down in forward motion, and whether the track remains pinned to Okinawa before shifting into the East China Sea; those are the variables most likely to alter the final landfall point and timing.[1][8][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.