Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's minimum temperature on 13 July 2026 will depend entirely on atmospheric conditions during that specific date, with the Hong Kong Observatory's official recording determining settlement. July sits firmly within Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when overnight lows typically range between 25–28°C, though cooler nights occasionally occur when tropical systems move offshore or upper-level troughs penetrate southward.

Historical July data from the Observatory shows minimum temperatures rarely dip below 23°C in the territory. The lowest July minimum on record across recent decades sits around 20–21°C, occurring during anomalous weather patterns involving significant upper-air disturbances or the tail end of tropical cyclone activity. Standard July nights cluster in the 26–27°C band, making substantially cooler readings statistically uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the rarity of such outcomes rather than impossibility.

Traders monitoring this market should track the subseasonal forecast evolution as July approaches, particularly the position of the western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the broader region. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended outlooks on its website, and any significant upper-air pattern shifts signalled in late June forecasts could alter the likelihood of cooler nights. Settlement depends on the Observatory's published daily extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.