Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperatures have stayed stubbornly high in the last day, with overnight readings still around 29°C and early-morning values only easing into the high-20s on the available history feeds. That matters because this market settles on the day’s **absolute minimum**, not the afternoon peak, so traders are watching whether cloud, showers or a sea breeze can force a meaningful dip before the Observatory’s cut-off.

The historical frame points to a narrow band rather than a wide spread. Hong Kong’s August normals put the mean minimum at about 26.7°C on 11 August, and the month’s climate profile is typically hot, humid and rain-prone rather than cool.[3] Even in a standout hot August, the Observatory has previously logged a minimum of 25.7°C on 11 August, described as the lowest reading of that month but still the highest monthly absolute minimum on record for August.[8] Recent history also shows the city has been running warm, with the last several days producing highs near 37°C and low overnight temperatures still in the upper-70s to low-80s °F range on public weather histories.[7][18]

The main catalyst is the Hong Kong Observatory’s own daily extract, which will ultimately be decisive once published and finalised for 11 August.[1][4] Traders should also watch the Observatory’s short-range forecasts and any updated weather warnings, because convective showers or stronger cloud cover can lift the chance of a lower-than-normal minimum while clear, humid conditions usually keep the floor elevated.[12][16] Public forecast services currently point to warm, partly cloudy weather with overnight lows still around 79–84°F, which is consistent with a low result clustered well above 25°C.[15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.