Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington Airport has started the day with a mild but unsettled airmass: BBC Weather’s latest airport observation shows **15°C**, south-southwesterly winds at **24 mph**, rising pressure and **72%** humidity, with a day forecast that includes thundery showers and a gentle breeze. That matters because the market resolves off the *highest* temperature printed at the airport on the day, so any brief early or mid-afternoon clearing can still set the winning band even if the broader session stays cool and changeable.[3]

For context, June is one of Wellington’s cooler, windier months rather than a time when extreme warmth is common. Seasonal averages at Wellington International Airport put June daily highs around the mid-50s °F, with highs rarely above **62°F** and a modest but persistent chance of wet days, while third-party June climatology places typical daytime temperatures roughly around **10°C to 12°C**.[1][2] Against that backdrop, a market still priced at **0% YES** is consistent with the event needing an above-normal and well-timed warm spike rather than a routine June afternoon.

The main catalysts to watch are the airport station’s live readings through the afternoon, any break in the showers, and changes in wind direction or strength that could briefly lift temperatures. Wellington Airport’s own flight status page and the official Wunderground history page are the practical dependencies here: the former is useful for seeing whether airport operations suggest changing conditions, while the latter is the settlement source that will ultimately determine the recorded daily maximum.[8][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.