Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 9, 2026, reflects a sharp realisation that today’s conditions are dominated by persistent southerly flow and cold snaps, not a heatwave. Current observations at Wellington International Airport show temperatures hovering near 13°C with strong winds and rising pressure, while hourly forecasts predict rain and wind through the night, making any significant daytime spike unlikely [2][3]. This immediate weather pattern has driven traders to abandon the 11°C contract, which previously traded at nearly even odds, as the settlement window closes in just five hours [1].

Historically, July in Wellington sees average highs around 17.6°C, but seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate temperatures are equally likely to be near or below average this year, with occasional cold snaps under persistent high pressure [5][6]. The current 0% probability aligns with comparable cases where southerly-quarter air flow anomalies, characteristic of transitioning El Niño conditions, suppress daytime warming and bring fog, frost, and cool nighttime lows [5]. Traders should watch for sudden shifts in the Southern Oscillation Index or unexpected high-pressure breakdowns, as these could alter the temperature trajectory before the 12:00 UTC deadline, though no such catalysts have emerged in the last 24 hours [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.