Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington has moved into a cool, breezy August setup, and the latest forecasts have not shifted towards any meaningful warmth in the last 24–48 hours. AccuWeather’s current day view has a high of 57°F, cloudy skies and a steady northerly breeze, while its month outlook keeps August highs mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius rather than anything close to a heat spike.[2][1]

That matters because Wellington’s August climate is typically very stable and cool, with long-run daytime highs around 12°C and many days sitting in a narrow band around 11–13°C.[10][17][18] In that context, a crowd-implied 0% YES is consistent with the market’s reliance on an outright daily maximum at Wellington Intl Airport: under normal winter patterns, the ceiling is usually set by cloud, wind and occasional rain, not by sudden frontal heat.[15][20]

For traders, the main catalysts are the hourly evolution of cloud, wind and rainfall through the morning and early afternoon, since the market settles on the highest temperature reached in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low.[11] The key dependency is whether any brief clearing or downslope wind allows the airport station to tick above the forecast range before the close of the settlement window; otherwise, the most likely outcome remains a value in the lower August bands suggested by the current forecasts.[2][3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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