Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington has had a fairly benign early-August setup, with the latest short-range forecast for 10 August pointing to a **60°F/49°F** day and *sunny to partly cloudy* conditions, which translates to a forecast high of roughly **15–16°C** if realised.[13] That sits a little above the city’s typical August daytime high of about **12°C**, but still well inside the normal winter range for Wellington rather than a true warm spell.[2][3]

For traders, the key point is that this market resolves on the **highest temperature actually recorded at Wellington Intl Airport Station** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low box. That matters because brief afternoon spikes can differ from broader forecast values, and the settlement window runs until noon UTC, so the relevant reading is the day’s actual maximum up to that cut-off. August in Wellington is usually cool, windy and changeable, with average highs around **12°C** and frequent rain or showers, so 0% YES implies the crowd sees little chance of any observation landing in the market’s target band.[1][3][11]

The main catalysts are local cloud cover, wind direction and any short-lived breaks in the maritime flow, rather than large-scale seasonal warmth. Long-run climate averages suggest Wellington rarely gets much above the low teens in August, but NIWA’s recent August summary showed settled spells can still occur in the region when pressure is higher than normal, producing relatively fine weather over coastal parts of New Zealand.[16] In practical terms, watch the station’s early-morning trace, then any midday clearing or southerly change that could lift the afternoon maximum by a degree or two.[13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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