Highest temperature in Toronto on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport is currently recording 22°C with falling pressure and west-north-westerly winds, while afternoon forecasts push the day’s peak toward 30°C before evening cooling. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific high-temperature range reflects the market’s recognition that July 16, 2026, is still unfolding, with no historical precedent yet to anchor a definitive outcome for this exact date.

Historically, mid-July highs at Toronto Pearson typically range between 26°C and 33°C, with extreme heatwaves occasionally breaching 35°C. For context, the July 13, 2026 market resolved to 33°C with 100% certainty, suggesting this week’s heat pattern aligns with recent summer norms rather than outlier extremes. The current 0% probability across all ranges indicates traders are awaiting final Wunderground data before committing, as settlement hinges on the day’s absolute maximum recorded at the station.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history page for CYYZ, which will publish the confirmed peak temperature once the settlement window closes at 12:00Z on July 17. No additional announcements or schedules are pending, as the resolution source is purely observational. The Met Office forecasts a maximum of 26°C for the day, but local afternoon conditions at Pearson may exceed this, as seen in the 30°C afternoon forecast from The Weather Network. Final resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded between midnight and 11:59 PM local time on July 16.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.