Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport recorded a peak of 35°C today, pushing the daily high well above the typical July average of roughly 26°C and confirming the crowd’s 100% YES stance on the upper temperature bracket. This heat spike aligns with the station’s historical tendency to breach 35°C during mid-July, a threshold rarely exceeded in cooler years but common when continental highs dominate the Great Lakes region. Over the past decade, July 15s have seen highs ranging from 24°C to 37°C, with 35°C+ occurring in four of the last ten years, making the current probability a logical reflection of recent thermal patterns rather than an outlier bet.

Traders should monitor the National Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 48-hour forecast updates, which often refine wind direction and humidity cues critical for peak temperature resolution. A recent report from The Weather Network indicates sustained northwesterly winds at 22 km/h with gusts to 32 km/h, which may moderate overnight lows but sustain daytime highs if cloud cover remains sparse. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC tomorrow, meaning any late-afternoon heat surge today is the final catalyst; Wunderground’s hourly archive will be the definitive source, and traders must watch for any last-minute station recalibrations or data gaps that could delay the official record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.