Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is starting the day under a warm, humid summer pattern, with current readings in the low 20s Celsius and a forecast that keeps daytime highs in the high 20s to low 30s. AccuWeather’s July outlook for Tokyo shows daily highs ranging from 79°F to 88°F, which is roughly 26°C to 31°C, while other July guides point to persistent heat and humidity alongside frequent showers rather than a prolonged cool spell.[1][8][9]

That puts the current 0% yes price in a useful historical frame: Tokyo in late July usually has a clear path to the upper 20s Celsius, but the market’s settlement asks for the *single highest temperature* at Haneda Airport Station on the day, not the average. That means the question is whether the city sees a brief hot surge that reaches the market’s winning band, not whether the day feels broadly summer-like. The most comparable setups are humid, partly sunny July days with intermittent rain, where a short-lived clearing can still lift the day’s maximum towards the low 30s.[1][4][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the local forecast updates through the Tokyo morning, especially the balance between sunshine, cloud cover and shower timing around Haneda. A stronger-than-expected sunny window would support a higher daily maximum, while widespread cloud, rain bands or marine air would cap the peak closer to the upper 20s. The market resolves from Wunderground’s daily high for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so late revisions to the forecast and the actual midday warmth matter more than overnight conditions.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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