Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is already in a strong heat spell, with the city around 36.7°C and the official Tokyo Haneda station reporting 93°F near midday UTC, under mostly clear skies and light easterly wind. That matters because the market resolves to the day’s *highest* temperature at Haneda, so an early-morning reading is not enough by itself; the key question is whether the afternoon peak pushes beyond the currently implied 0% YES pricing. [1][2]

The historical frame points to July as one of Tokyo’s hottest and most humid months, with typical highs around 30–33°C and frequent muggy conditions, but recent extreme-heat episodes in Japan have shown how quickly temperatures can exceed those norms. Japan’s record heat wave earlier in the month, including 41.1°C at Kumagaya, is a reminder that inland heat can intensify sharply when skies stay clear and winds are light. [3][5][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime heating curve, any cloud build-up or rain bands that would cap the high, and changes in wind direction or speed that affect sea-breeze moderation near Haneda. The most useful intraday check is whether Tokyo remains hot and mostly clear into the early afternoon, because the settlement source only needs one late-day spike to lift the final maximum range. [1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.