Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo hit its first “extremely hot day” of 2026 on 14 July, with Nerima Ward reaching 35.3°C, a clear shift from the cooler start to mid-July that previously kept Haneda Airport temperatures below 34°C [7]. This spike in regional heat has not yet translated into a revised probability for the Haneda-specific market, which still sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the airport’s coastal location to buffer against the inland extremes seen in wards like Nerima.

Historically, July highs at Tokyo Haneda Airport average 32°C, with typical daily peaks ranging between 26°C and 33°C, rarely exceeding 35°C even during intense heatwaves [4]. While 2026’s early July was milder, the sudden 35.3°C reading in central Tokyo two days ago mirrors past years when inland stations recorded extreme heat while Haneda stayed 1–2°C cooler due to sea influence [7]. The current 0% probability aligns with this pattern, implying the market expects Haneda to remain below the threshold that would trigger a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily 10:48am updates for Haneda Airport, particularly any forecast adjustments for Friday’s expected thunderstorms, which could suppress temperatures [7]. AccuWeather now forecasts a 93°F (33.9°C) high for Haneda today, with rain and thunderstorms likely from Friday afternoon, potentially capping the day’s peak [2]. A sustained push above 35°C at Haneda would require an unexpected breakdown in the usual coastal cooling effect, a scenario not yet supported by current models or recent observations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.