Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport is currently tracking a cloudy, scattered-shower day with a forecasted high of 30°C, a sharp drop from the 35°C peak predicted for Monday just 24 hours ago. This rapid cooling in the last 48 hours has driven the crowd-implied probability for any temperature above 30°C to 0% YES, as traders now expect the rain and cloud cover to suppress the heat significantly before the settlement window closes at noon UTC.

Historical July data for Haneda typically sees daytime highs stabilising between 28°C and 33°C, with the first half of the month averaging near 30°C before rising to 35°C later in July. The current 0% probability for higher ranges aligns with these early-month averages but ignores the occasional spikes to 35°C–38°C seen in late July due to urban heat island effects, suggesting the market is currently pricing in a conservative, rain-affected scenario rather than a potential heatwave outlier.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast updates issued at 11:00 JST, which will confirm if the scattered showers persist or clear to allow solar heating. A sudden shift in the rain probability from the current 40% to near zero, or a revision of the maximum daytime temperature above 33°C in the next official bulletin, would be the primary catalyst for a rapid repricing of the 31°C and 32°C outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.