Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 10 forecast has shifted noticeably in the last 48 hours, with clear skies now expected to dominate the Haneda Airport area, pushing daytime highs toward 32°C. This contrasts with earlier models that suggested scattered cloud cover and slightly cooler conditions, a change driven by a strengthening subtropical ridge over the Kanto region. The crowd-implied 0% probability for higher temperature ranges now reflects this stabilisation toward typical mid-July heat rather than extreme outliers.

Historically, Haneda’s July 10 highs cluster tightly around 29–32°C, with only rare spikes above 35°C occurring during prolonged typhoon-induced heatwaves or when the Pacific high pressure intensifies unusually early. Over the past decade, no recorded July 10 at Haneda exceeded 36°C, making the current 0% probability for higher ranges statistically grounded. Long-term averages from the Japan National Tourism Organisation confirm daytime peaks of 29°C with high humidity, reinforcing that extreme heat is not the norm on this date[2][3].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 06:00 UTC daily update for any sudden shifts in the Pacific high’s position, as well as real-time radar from Wunderground for cloud development that could suppress temperatures. A recent AccuWeather forecast for Haneda notes daily highs ranging 32–36°C through mid-July, but emphasises that 32°C remains the most likely peak for July 10 under current ridge conditions[1][6]. No tropical storm is forecast within 1,000 km of Tokyo in the next 72 hours, reducing the risk of anomalous heat spikes[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.