Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s heat has held up into the morning, with Weather Underground showing 92°F and a 77°F low at 9:39 AM JST, while other live forecasts still point to a daytime peak around 94°F and only limited rain risk. That leaves the market anchored to a warm, humid summer setup rather than any sharp cooling break, and the current 0% YES pricing reflects how far below the eventual upper reading the market would need to land for a lower temperature band to win. [4][2]

For context, Tokyo’s August climate is normally hot, with long-run averages around 31°C for daytime highs and about 24°C to 26°C for lows, and WeatherSpark notes 8 August sits near the muggiest point of the month. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook also keeps daily highs in a broad 83°F to 94°F range, so a reading in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius would be consistent with the seasonal pattern rather than an outlier. [11][13][1]

The main catalysts are the rest of today’s hourly heating, cloud cover, and whether any showers or marine breeze suppress the afternoon peak; timeanddate’s hourly forecast still shows temperatures rising into the low 90s Fahrenheit through early afternoon. Traders should also watch whether the official reference point, Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, diverges from city-centre forecasts, because this market resolves from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low panel. [2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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