Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 16 August 2026 will be shaped by the tail end of Japan's summer monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically peak between 32–35°C at Haneda Airport. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that temperatures will fall below the lowest resolution bracket, though August historically remains one of Tokyo's most consistently hot months regardless of year-to-year variation.

Haneda Airport's daily observations have recorded August highs exceeding 35°C in roughly two-thirds of years over the past two decades, with readings above 37°C occurring in approximately one-third of Augusts. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary matters operationally; the former captures granular station data whilst the latter may apply smoothing or corrections. Traders should verify which dataset Wunderground publishes for Haneda on the settlement date, as discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally created resolution disputes on similar markets.

Catalysts to monitor include tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August, which could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, and the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system that typically dominates the region. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July and early August will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns expected around the 16th. Current seasonal models suggest near-normal conditions, though the 0% probability may reflect traders' preference for hedging against cooler-than-typical outcomes rather than genuine conviction about sub-32°C readings.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.