Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 14 August 2026 will depend heavily on whether a summer high-pressure system remains anchored over the Kanto region or if tropical moisture from the Pacific pushes northward. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whatever range this market specifies, though without the exact threshold visible, the consensus appears cautious about extreme heat that day. Recent August conditions in Tokyo have seen daily highs consistently between 32–35°C, with occasional spikes above 36°C during particularly intense heat waves.

Historical data from Tokyo Haneda Airport shows August typically ranks among the year's hottest months, with the station recording temperatures exceeding 37°C on roughly one in three years during mid-August. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary matters operationally; the former captures sub-hourly readings and occasionally differs from rounded summary figures. Traders should note that resolution hinges on Haneda Airport's specific instrumentation, not central Tokyo readings, which can vary by 1–2°C depending on urban heat island effects.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days prior to mid-August, will be the key catalyst for probability shifts. Monitoring typhoon tracks in late July and early August is critical, as even a distant system can redirect moisture patterns and suppress peak temperatures. Any official heat wave warnings issued by JMA in the week before 14 August would signal elevated risk of higher temperature ranges resolving.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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