Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo has already entered its most heat-prone stretch of the year, but the market is effectively asking whether Haneda will produce an unusually strong peak rather than merely a typical August maximum. Tokyo’s August averages sit around 31°C, with daytime highs often reaching the low to mid-30s, and the city has recorded far higher extremes in past summers, including 37.3°C in August 1994.[2][10][14]

That historical spread is why the current 0% implied probability looks consistent with the calendar rather than with an expectation of a cool day: the first day of August usually has enough heat potential for a 30°C-plus result, but the settlement source is the day’s highest reading at Haneda, so only one sharp midday surge matters.[2][11][17] Recent seasonal data also show Tokyo’s monthly maxima in summer 2025 running well above 30°C in July and August, which keeps the upper end of the distribution open even when the exact day is uncertain.[11]

The main catalysts are the local forecast for central Tokyo, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any sea-breeze or thunderstorm development that can cap the afternoon high before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. Traveller guidance for August consistently points to oppressive heat and humidity, with daytime temperatures often exceeding 33°C, so traders should watch whether forecast highs for the Tokyo metropolitan area move into the mid-30s or stay pinned closer to 31–32°C.[3][12][13][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.