Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei has started the day with a forecast shaped by heat, humidity and a fair chance of showers, and the latest estimates still cluster in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anything extreme. Current public forecasts for 10 August point to highs around 33–34°C, with one-month climate normals for August also sitting near 32–33°C, so the latest move in the last 24–48 hours has been a modest softening from hotter near-36°C expectations towards a more typical late-summer peak.[2][5][8][11]

That matters because this market resolves to the highest temperature in the Daily Observations table at Taipei Songshan Airport Station, not the headline day-high figure, so the final print can differ from the main forecast tiles. Historically, Taipei’s August weather is defined by persistent heat rather than exceptional spikes: average highs are around 32.5–33°C, record highs are near 38°C, and comparable recent August days have often topped out in the 33–36°C band rather than pushing into the upper 30s.[2][3][8][16]

The main catalysts to watch are the timing and intensity of afternoon convection, plus whether showers arrive early enough to cap the day’s maximum before the usual late-morning to early-afternoon heating window. Forecast providers currently show overcast conditions, showers or thunderstorms, and high humidity, which can still support a brief spike if skies stay brighter through late morning; the key watchpoint is the sequence of hourly observations at Songshan, because the market settles on the highest recorded reading published in the observations table.[4][5][6][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

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