Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s temperature profile has not shifted much in the past day: the live forecasts still point to a warm, humid day with shower risk, which keeps the market anchored in the low-30s Celsius rather than any extreme spike. Current hourly and day-ahead guidance shows around 31–33°C, with rain or thundery showers appearing in several forecasts and only modest winds, a setup that typically caps late-day heating rather than amplifying it.[7][11][13]

That matters because early-August Shenzhen usually sits in the low 30s at the daytime high, with August averages around 32°C and frequent rain in the month.[8][14][18][20] The market’s current 0% YES reading looks consistent with the fact that the likely outcome cluster is tightly bunched around 31–33°C rather than a single nailed-on reading; Polymarket’s own ladder shows 32°C and 31°C as the leading outcomes, with 33°C still plausible.[15]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether showers arrive early enough to suppress the afternoon peak at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, since the settlement is based on the day’s highest recorded temperature at that specific station.[3][7] The most useful watchpoints are the airport-hourly updates, any shift in precipitation timing, and whether convective showers or thunderstorms flare during the warmest part of the day; if cloud cover holds until mid-afternoon, a higher terminal reading becomes harder to reach.[7][11][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.