Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is already running close to its late-summer ceiling, with current weather services showing daytime highs in the low 30s Celsius and AccuWeather listing today’s expected high near 92°F/33°C. That leaves the market’s 0% YES price for a very narrow event definition: the recorded maximum at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport must land in one of the higher brackets, and the crowd is effectively saying that looks unlikely from the starting point this morning.[1][16][3]

The historical frame points the same way. August in Shenzhen is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, with published climate guides and history pages clustering around average highs of about 32°C and frequent daily highs between 31°C and 33°C, while some sources note a meaningful typhoon influence in the month. In other words, the market is not asking whether Shenzhen is warm enough — it is asking whether conditions on the day push the airport station into a specific upper band, which tends to be decided by cloud cover, rainfall and the timing of the warmest part of the afternoon.[7][8][10][13]

Traders should watch the short-range forecast through the day for showers, thunderstorm bands and any typhoon-related disruption, because those can cap the maximum even when the broader seasonal pattern is hot. The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, so the key dependency is not the city-wide feel but the station’s highest observed reading before the reporting day closes.[3] Since the market settles on the day’s maximum rather than the evening temperature, any late-afternoon burst of sun or convective heating matters more than the overnight or early-morning values.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.