Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen has started the day with a warm, humid setup rather than a cool break, and the latest city forecasts continue to point to temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with several services showing around 33–34°C for 3 August and no clear signal of a sharp daytime surge beyond that band.[4][10][11] That matters because this market resolves to the *single highest* reading at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so even a modest cloudier or wetter afternoon can keep the final outcome pinned to the lower end of the forecast range.[5][17]

The current 0% yes pricing is best read against Shenzhen’s August climate, which is normally hot, humid and often rain-affected rather than extreme in the local sense.[17][18][20] Historical-style summaries for August cluster around average highs near 31–32°C, with comparable daily ranges typically sitting between 27°C and 31°C, so the market is effectively asking whether today can edge just above the usual seasonal envelope.[3][18][19] That makes the tail outcomes important: a clear, steamy afternoon can produce a one-off top reading, but widespread showers or persistent cloud cover usually cap the peak temperature.[4][5]

Traders should watch for any updated hour-by-hour forecast changes, especially shifts in rain timing, cloud cover and wind, because those variables are what most directly move the day’s maximum at the airport station.[5][7][8] The most relevant dependency is whether convective showers develop during peak heating hours; if they do, the cap on the day’s high becomes more credible, while a drier window would leave room for the airport to print at the upper end of the current forecast range.[4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.