Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 9 June 2026 will be shaped by early summer monsoon patterns typical of the Yangtze River Delta region. Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows June temperatures consistently range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves driven by Pacific high-pressure systems. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range will resolve. June sits at the transition between late spring moisture and full summer heat, making daily variation substantial; the difference between a cloudy, humid day and a clear one can shift the daily maximum by 4–6°C.

The Shanghai Meteorological Bureau issues five-day forecasts that typically gain reliability within 72 hours of the target date. Traders should monitor late May and early June atmospheric pressure patterns over the Western Pacific, particularly whether the subtropical high-pressure ridge establishes early or remains weak. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months influence regional circulation; current oceanic indices suggest neutral conditions heading into 2026, which historically correlates with near-normal June temperatures for Shanghai. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 9 June, meaning the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at the airport station by that time—typically the afternoon peak occurs between 14:00 and 16:00 local time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.