Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is already sweltering as July 7 begins, with Pudong Airport recording 27°C (81°F) at 3:30 am UTC and humidity near 90%, setting a baseline for a day likely to breach 35°C [2][6]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific high-temperature range appears premature given that early July routinely delivers highs between 30–38°C, with extremes occasionally hitting 40°C in recent years [3][5].

Historically, July in Shanghai is one of its hottest months, averaging 26–31°C with daily peaks around 3 pm; in July 2025, the temperature reached 38°C (100°F) at Pudong [5]. The warmest day in July typically falls on July 29, averaging 32.5°C (90.5°F), while July 3 is the coldest in the first ten days at 24.3°C (75.7°F), suggesting July 7 sits in a warming trajectory [1][8]. With 7–15 days per July exceeding 35°C historically, the current 0% probability for any range contradicts the seasonal norm unless an unusual cooling event is imminent [3].

Traders should monitor the 12:00 pm UTC settlement cutoff against real-time updates from Wunderground for ZSPD, watching for sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain that could cap temperatures below 35°C [3]. The National Weather Service shows clear skies and SSE winds at 7 mph as of 4 am, conditions that typically support strong heating through midday [6]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the high UV index (frequently 11) and intense sunlight hours (~7 per day) reinforce the likelihood of a high-temperature day [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.