Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak heat phase today, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to face temperatures that routinely exceed 35°C in early July. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the current temperature range is a stark misreading of the season; historical data confirms that July is one of the city’s hottest months, where daily highs typically hover between 30°C and 38°C, and extreme peaks can reach 40°C[3]. In the first ten days of July, the coldest day recorded is 03.07 at 24.3°C, but the warmest day of the month is 29.07 at 32.5°C, indicating a rapid thermal climb that makes early July significantly hotter than the current market suggests[8]. Average daily high temperatures increase by 5°F throughout the month, rarely falling below 75°F, which frames the current 0% probability as an outlier against the norm[1].

Traders must watch for the imminent arrival of local thunderstorms forecast for this afternoon, which could temporarily suppress temperatures but are unlikely to alter the monthly heat trend[2]. The primary catalyst is the "plum rain" season transition, which brings high humidity and sustained warmth, with highs typically peaking around 3 PM, as seen in July 2025 when temperatures reached 38°C[5]. Recent forecasts show daily highs ranging from 86°F to 98°F, with overnight lows between 78°F and 82°F, reinforcing that the market is ignoring the consistent thermal pressure of the season[4]. Monitor the Wunderground station updates hourly for the official high, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, and any deviation from the expected 30–38°C range would be a significant anomaly[3]. The 60% probability of precipitation today is moderate, but the underlying heat remains the dominant factor for the resolution[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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