Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-July heat is the key factor here: the city is already in its hottest stretch of the year, and recent climatology points to average July highs around 31–33°C with humid conditions and frequent rain, while 31 July is often one of the clearer days in the month.[1][4][15] That seasonal backdrop makes a **sub-35°C** outcome a live possibility, but the long-run distribution still leaves room for a much hotter afternoon if the subtropical high dominates.[3][7]

The market’s **0% YES** crowd price is hard to reconcile with Shanghai’s history. Official city reporting says Shanghai endured a 12-day heatwave from 31 July to 11 August in 2024, with temperatures at or above 37°C, showing that extreme late-July heat is not rare when the circulation pattern locks in.[2] Comparable July data also show daily highs above 35°C are common enough to matter, with recent July records in the high 30s in Shanghai weather datasets.[7][9]

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s actual airport reading through Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport station page, because the market settles on the **highest temperature recorded on 31 July** there.[10] The crucial watchpoints are whether morning cloud or rain suppresses heating, whether the subtropical high keeps skies clear into the afternoon, and whether any forecast updates from mainstream weather services shift the expected peak before the settlement window closes.[3][4][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.