Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is facing a passing morning shower system on 21 July 2026, with considerable clouds suppressing peak heat as the day begins. Forecasts indicate a high near 32°C (90°F) for the Pudong International Airport station, significantly below the typical July peak of 34–35°C, which explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for higher temperature ranges. The air has reached a high level of pollution, and a blue rainstorm warning remains active from the Pudong New Area Meteorological Observatory, further limiting solar heating potential [2][7].

Historical July data for Shanghai shows average highs of 34°C, with frequent peaks reaching 37–39°C during clear, humid spells. However, the current 2026 pattern aligns more closely with cooler, rain-affected days where temperatures struggle to exceed 32°C. In comparable cases from recent years, morning showers and cloud cover have consistently capped daily highs below 33°C, making higher ranges statistically improbable under these specific atmospheric conditions [1][9].

Traders should monitor the Pudong New Area Meteorological Observatory’s rainstorm warning updates and the timing of morning precipitation clearance. If showers persist through midday, the 32°C ceiling will likely hold; a sudden clearing could push temperatures toward 33–34°C, though current models suggest only a 35% chance of precipitation early on, transitioning to mixed sunshine later [2][7]. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for ZSPD, so real-time hourly data from 11:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC will be critical for final resolution [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.