Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

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Market context

Shanghai is experiencing a humid, partly cloudy July 20 with isolated thunderstorms expected, pushing current highs near 31–32°C rather than the extreme heat required to trigger a YES outcome. Official and commercial forecasts, including AccuWeather and Chinese meteorological summaries, project daily highs of 31–34°C for the 19–21 July window, with July 20 specifically centred near 31–32°C under these conditions[5]. The crowd-implied 0% probability reflects this consensus: historical data shows July highs at Pudong Airport rarely exceed 35°C (95°F), with the monthly average high sitting at 32°C (90°F)[1][9]. Even the peak daily average for the month occurs on 29 July at 31°C (88°F), making a temperature spike above 35°C on 20 July statistically anomalous without a confirmed heatwave signal[4].

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s hourly updates for any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind direction, as a drop in precipitation chance could elevate temperatures toward the 34°C upper forecast bound[5]. The key catalyst is the 70% precipitation probability forecast for Monday afternoon; if rain fails to materialise, temperatures could climb closer to 33°C, though still below the threshold for YES resolution[6]. Watch for the 2 Yellow Warning for Lightning issued tonight, which may suppress daytime heating if storms intensify[3]. No new heatwave announcements have been made for the 19–21 period, and current wind patterns (SSW at 11.2 mph) suggest stable, non-extreme conditions[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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