Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak summer heatwave window, with July 2026 forecasts predicting daily highs between 79°F and 96°F, averaging 89°F. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature falling in the lowest range is starkly contradicted by historical data, as July is consistently the hottest month at Pudong Airport, with average highs of 87°F and regular peaks exceeding 95°F during sunny spells[1][3].

Historical records show summer highs at Pudong regularly exceed 30°C (86°F), often reaching 35°C (95°F) under clear skies, making a low-temperature outcome virtually impossible for this date[6]. The 0% probability aligns with reality, as comparable years show no instances where July 1st temperatures dipped into the lowest range, given the city’s monsoon-driven heat and the airport’s coastal exposure[1][8].

Traders should monitor the upcoming typhoon season announcements from the China Meteorological Administration, as a sudden storm could disrupt the heatwave, though July 1st remains historically stable for high temperatures[4]. No immediate weather disruptions are forecast, and the settlement window ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z ensures the market resolves on the day’s peak heat, which Wunderground will confirm via the Pudong station’s daily record[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.