Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai has started the month in a hot, humid pattern, with nearby forecasts clustering around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and some showing thunderstorms or patchy rain around 3 August. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Shanghai puts daily highs broadly between 82°F and 92°F, while other public forecasts for the day point to roughly 33–35°C, which is consistent with a high landing well into the upper 20s or low-to-mid 30s Celsius range rather than anything near the market’s 0% implied price[1][2][8].

That framing matters because Shanghai in August is typically a high-heat, high-humidity environment, but the precise daily maximum can still be capped by cloud cover, rain bands and sea-breeze effects. Historical-style August guidance from multiple forecast services shows typical highs around 32–34°C and lows around 25–27°C, with occasional hotter spikes into the mid-30s; in other words, the market is really about whether the airport station prints a straightforward hot-day peak or gets clipped by convection and cloud[10][12][15].

For traders, the key catalysts are the hour-by-hour evolution of cloud, rain and thunder around Pudong, plus any late-morning or early-afternoon shower line that prevents a higher maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The resolution source is Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station daily history page, so the relevant watchpoint is not the city average but the specific airport observation during local daytime heating[13]. Current airport-area conditions are already warm enough to leave room for a higher midday maximum if sunshine holds, while nearby forecasts also allow for showers that would suppress the peak[11][14][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.