Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 13 August 2026 will be shaped by the tail end of summer monsoon patterns typical for the Yangtze River Delta region. Mid-August temperatures in Shanghai historically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional readings exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing in no expectation of extreme heat on that specific date, though this reflects uncertainty about conditions two years ahead rather than any meteorological constraint.

Historical August records for Shanghai Pudong Airport show that temperatures above 35°C occur in roughly 40–50% of years during mid-month, whilst readings above 38°C are less frequent but not exceptional. The 2013 heat wave saw consecutive days above 37°C; more recently, August 2022 recorded multiple days exceeding 36°C. These precedents establish that the range between 34–37°C represents the modal outcome for mid-August, with tail probabilities distributed across both cooler and hotter scenarios.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasting updates from China's National Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding August 2026, particularly any signals about Pacific typhoon activity or anomalous pressure systems that could suppress or amplify heat. The resolution will depend on readings from the Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong station rather than summary figures, making the precise measurement methodology consequential for boundary cases. Current crowd pricing reflects the inherent difficulty of long-range weather forecasting rather than any indication that August 2026 will be atypical.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.