Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, where early summer conditions typically bring warm, humid air masses from the Pacific. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts as the date approaches. Current meteorological patterns for early June in the region show typical highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings several degrees higher.

Historical June records at Incheon show considerable variability. The station has recorded highs ranging from 20°C on cooler days to 32°C during heat events, with an average high around 26°C. Comparable early-June periods demonstrate that whilst sustained heat waves are possible, they remain less frequent than mid-to-late summer extremes. The wide historical range explains why traders haven't yet committed to specific temperature bands—the outcome depends heavily on whether a high-pressure system settles over the Korean peninsula during that particular week.

Seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically issued in May, will provide the first concrete signals about June's temperature trajectory. Traders should monitor late-April and May weather pattern developments, particularly the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any northward movement of tropical moisture. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in the final week before 9 June, when synoptic models show greater reliability for specific daily conditions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.