Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

Seoul is entering its early summer phase with daytime highs typically reaching 26°C, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for a record-breaking heat event on 26 June suggests traders see no immediate threat of extreme temperatures. In the last 24 hours, meteorological models have shifted to indicate a stable, moist air mass moving in from the south, dampening the likelihood of the intense solar heating required to push temperatures beyond historical norms. This stabilisation contrasts sharply with the volatile conditions seen in late May, where rapid temperature swings created brief windows for outlier heat spikes.

Historically, late June in Seoul marks the transition into the monsoon season, with average highs ranging between 19°C and 28°C and rainfall increasing significantly toward the month's end. Comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show that even during warm spells, temperatures rarely exceed 32°C before the monsoon clouds fully obscure the sun, making a sudden spike to record levels highly improbable. The 0% probability aligns with this pattern, as the region's climate consistently moderates extreme heat through rising humidity and afternoon showers, preventing the sustained high temperatures needed for a market resolution.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's short-range forecasts for any unexpected shifts in wind direction or pressure systems that could delay monsoon onset. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of the weekly humidity report on 25 June, which may confirm whether the moist air mass will persist or dissipate. Recent updates from AccuWeather indicate that humidity levels are already climbing, reinforcing the expectation of cooler, wetter conditions rather than the dry heat required for a record-breaking day. Any announcement of a sudden pressure drop or wind shift could alter this outlook, but current data strongly supports the prevailing 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.