Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 12 June 2026 will be shaped by early monsoon patterns typical of South Korea's transition into summer. The East Asian summer monsoon begins its seasonal shift in mid-June, introducing moisture-laden air masses from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Current atmospheric modelling suggests this particular date sits at the threshold between late spring conditions and the onset of the rainy season, which typically brings cooler, cloudier days with frequent precipitation.

Historical records from Incheon International Airport show June temperatures cluster between 20–28°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 30°C before the monsoon fully establishes itself. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about whether conditions will deviate significantly from this seasonal norm. Comparable years show considerable variation: some Junes see early heat waves pushing into the low 30s, whilst others remain subdued by cloud cover and rain. The settlement mechanism uses Wunderground's historical data feed from Incheon station, which provides granular hourly readings across the full calendar day.

Traders should monitor extended-range weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as June approaches. These typically become reliable 10–14 days out. High-pressure systems tracking across northern China or unusual tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific could push temperatures upward, whilst a deeper monsoon trough would suppress them. The timing of the actual monsoon onset—which varies by 1–2 weeks annually—represents the primary driver of temperature variance for this specific date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.