Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat typically peaks in late July, with the city experiencing monsoon conditions that can either suppress or intensify daily maximums depending on atmospheric patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are uncertain about which temperature band will register as the day's high at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. Current meteorological models for late July 2026 remain preliminary, though historical data shows Seoul regularly records temperatures between 28–34°C during this period, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves.

July 25th falls within Seoul's peak summer season, when the interaction between the Pacific high-pressure system and the Tibetan anticyclone determines whether humid, cloud-laden conditions prevail or clear skies allow surface heating to accelerate. Historical records from Incheon Airport reveal that temperatures in the 30–33°C range occur most frequently in late July, though the station has recorded readings as high as 37–38°C during exceptional heat events. The monsoon season's timing—typically peaking in early to mid-July—means late July can see either residual moisture suppressing highs or a transition toward drier, hotter conditions.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks leading to July 25th, as these will clarify whether the 2026 summer follows typical patterns or deviates significantly. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems and upper-air wind patterns in early July will provide the strongest signals for what Incheon Airport will record. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data for that specific date, which will capture the actual peak temperature regardless of intraday fluctuations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.