Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing hot, humid conditions with afternoon thunderstorms expected, pushing daytime highs toward 30°C as the monsoon season lingers into late July. The Incheon International Airport station, which governs this market’s resolution, recorded a current temperature of 77°F (25°C) at 10:00 PM local time on 20 July, with 100% relative humidity and light southeast winds [2]. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome, the prevailing forecast suggests temperatures will remain within the typical July range rather than dipping to the lower thresholds that would trigger a YES resolution.

Historical data for Seoul in July shows average highs of 28–30°C, with daily maximums rarely falling below 22°C even during rainy periods [1][4]. A comparable prediction market for Seoul on 3 July 2026 resolved at 28°C, with 100% probability assigned to that outcome and 0% for all lower ranges, reinforcing that lower temperature bands are statistically improbable in mid-summer [7][8]. This pattern frames the current 0% probability as consistent with seasonal norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s hourly updates for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation intensity, which could suppress peak temperatures. The KMA forecast for 20 July specifically notes a chance of afternoon thunderstorms that may briefly lower temperatures but are unlikely to push the daily maximum below 26°C [5]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, the final resolution will depend on the highest recorded temperature before that cutoff, making real-time Wunderground data the critical dependency [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.