Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently under a thick monsoon layer with mostly cloudy skies and 89% humidity as of Friday evening, suppressing any immediate heat spike for today’s 11 July high-temperature event [3]. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability reflects this active rain system, which aligns with July being Korea’s wettest month, averaging nearly 400 mm of precipitation and 13 rainy days in Seoul alone [2][4].

Historically, July highs in Seoul typically range from 27°C to 29°C, with occasional spikes into the mid-30s°C only when monsoon clouds break and humidity drops [2][7]. Days exceeding 35°C are rare in July, as August remains the peak summer month with temperatures 3–4°C higher and real-feel values approaching 38°C [4]. The current 0% pricing suggests traders expect the monsoon to persist, keeping highs near the 27–29°C average rather than breaching extreme thresholds.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts updated at 08:10 UTC today, which track cloud cover and precipitation intensity through 5 PM [9]. A sudden shift to clear skies or a drop in humidity before midday could rapidly alter the temperature outlook, though such breaks are uncommon during peak monsoon season [2]. No major weather announcements are scheduled beyond routine KMA updates, making real-time radar and humidity data the primary catalysts for any probability movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.