Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

South Korea’s heatwave has intensified again in the last 24–48 hours, with Seoul’s temperatures pushing to the year’s highest levels and nearby parts of the capital area also near 40°C. Reuters said Yangsan hit 42.5°C, a national record, while local coverage reported Seoul’s Yongsan district briefly reaching 39.9°C and the city’s official station at 37.9°C, underlining how little margin there is between an ordinary very hot day and an extreme one.[13][12][6]

That backdrop matters for reading the current 0% YES pricing. In late-season August heat, Seoul’s climatology still supports hot afternoons, but the market resolves on Incheon Intl Airport Station rather than the city centre, and coastal exposure usually leaves Incheon a little cooler than inland Seoul. Local forecasts on 7 August point to highs around 38°C for Incheon, with Seoul itself seen closer to 39°C, so the crowd is effectively discounting the chance that the airport station will print an exceptionally high top reading and land in the upper outcome bands.[2][7]

For the rest of the session, traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration forecast updates and any revision to the heatwave guidance, because the deciding factor is whether afternoon mixing, cloud cover, or sea-breeze effects cap Incheon below the hotter inland readings. SBS and other local reports say the dual heat dome is expected to weaken into the weekend, which argues for less upside after today’s peak, while the official Wunderground history page for Incheon will be the settlement source once the day’s maximum is finalised.[8][3][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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