Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The immediate shift is a severe heat warning across the Seoul metropolitan area, with Seoul forecast to reach **38°C** today and only limited relief overnight, while brief showers are still possible in parts of the west[1]. For Incheon Airport, that keeps the upside to the day’s peak temperature firmly in play even though coastal moderation can trim extremes compared with inland Seoul; the market is therefore mainly about whether the airport station can ride the broader heat surge high enough to land in the upper temperature bands[1][2].

Contextually, August in Seoul is already the hottest part of the year, with typical daytime highs around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius and a history of occasional extreme spikes well above that[2][16][18]. The current 0% YES price implies traders are assigning essentially no chance to a qualifying high for the relevant range, but that sits awkwardly against today’s official-style forecast language describing exceptional heat and a record-strength warning posture across the capital region[1]. If the airport follows the same synoptic pattern as central Seoul, the probability of a materially hot reading is higher than the market suggests[1][2].

The main catalysts to watch are the morning-to-afternoon temperature ramp, cloud cover, and whether any western-area showers reach the airport long enough to cap the maximum[1]. In practice, the decisive inputs are the Korea Meteorological Administration short-range updates and the day’s hourly progression into early afternoon, because a fast build in heat under mostly clear skies would support a higher maximum, while passing rain or persistent maritime airflow would limit the top end[8][11][15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.