Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 20 August 2026 will be shaped by the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon and any tropical systems tracking northward from the Western Pacific during that period. August typically marks the tail end of Korea's rainy season, with temperatures in Seoul averaging 29–30°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 32°C when high-pressure systems dominate. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect conditions substantially cooler than historical August norms—a positioning worth examining against seasonal climatology.

Historical August data from Incheon International Airport shows that temperatures above 33°C occur in roughly 60–70% of years during mid-to-late August, with readings above 35°C appearing in approximately 30–40% of cases. The 2018 heat wave saw Incheon reach 37.7°C on 1 August; more recently, August 2023 produced multiple days exceeding 34°C. These precedents indicate that moderate-to-high temperature outcomes are climatologically routine rather than exceptional for this calendar date.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts from mid-August 2026, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 20 August, meaning forecasts issued 5–7 days prior will carry substantial weight. Any significant deviation from typical August patterns—such as an unusually active monsoon trough or early autumn cooling—would shift probability distributions materially.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.