Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 15 August 2026 will depend on the intensity of summer heat and any tropical systems affecting the Korean peninsula during that period. August typically marks the tail end of Korea's monsoon season, with temperatures in Seoul-Incheon averaging 29–30°C, though peaks regularly exceed 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme scepticism about higher temperature thresholds or insufficient clarity on the specific resolution bands available in this market.

Historical August records for Incheon show considerable variability. The station has recorded temperatures above 35°C on multiple occasions during August, most notably in 2018 when the region experienced a severe heat wave. Conversely, tropical storms or unusual weather patterns can suppress temperatures significantly. The critical distinction here is that resolution depends on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—a methodological detail that occasionally produces different readings from casual weather reporting. Traders should verify which specific temperature ranges are available for settlement before committing positions.

The 2026 forecast window remains too distant for reliable meteorological prediction; seasonal outlooks from Korea Meteorological Administration typically gain precision only 2–3 weeks beforehand. Traders monitoring this market should watch for any August 2026 tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which could substantially alter temperature trajectories. Verification of the exact resolution bands and confirmation of Wunderground's data source hierarchy will be essential before the settlement window closes on 15 August at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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