Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 13 August 2026 will be shaped by the typical monsoon patterns that dominate the Korean peninsula during mid-summer. The Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts suggest August conditions will track near or slightly above the 30-year normal, with afternoon highs commonly reaching 32–34°C in the Seoul metropolitan area. Current atmospheric conditions show no exceptional heat dome or blocking pattern developing over East Asia in the medium-range outlook, which typically would be required to push temperatures significantly beyond seasonal norms.

Historical August data from Incheon International Airport reveals that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly 40–50% of years during this period, whilst readings above 37°C are less frequent. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be missed rather than an absence of heat entirely. The resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—introduces a technical precision element; discrepancies between observation stations and rounded daily highs occasionally occur, particularly during rapid afternoon heating cycles.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts released in late July and early August, which will clarify whether any upper-level pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns develop. The timing of any typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could materially shift Seoul's weather regime, though such systems typically bring cloud cover and precipitation rather than extreme heat. Real-time atmospheric data from 10–14 August will be the decisive factor.

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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