Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded a high of 73°F on 16 July 2026, confirming the market’s 0% YES probability for any outcome outside the 64–67°F bands. This reading sits comfortably within the month’s typical range, where daily highs usually climb from 74°F to 79°F, rarely dipping below 66°F or surging past 88°F[5]. While July 2026 has been cooler than average overall—averaging 22.3°F, or 3.6°F below the seasonal norm—the 16th itself avoided the extreme heat that gripped Western Washington earlier in the week, when Sea-Tac hit 95°F on 26 July 2018 and 95°F again recently[7].

Traders should monitor the timing and strength of Pacific cold fronts, which have already begun delivering relief after the mid-July heatwave that pushed temperatures to 104°F in some areas[8]. The next key dependency is the weekend forecast: Saturday is expected to see highs in the upper 80s, dropping to low 80s by Sunday, with mid-to-upper 70s forecast for Monday[7]. Any sudden shift in wind direction from the NNW (currently 340° at 5.8 mph) or unexpected cloud cover could suppress afternoon peaks, but current data suggests no further spikes above 75°F are imminent for the remainder of the month[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.