Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July 14 high at the International Airport is already locked in as a cool mid-70s day, with the 24-hour maximum recorded at 79.0°F and the 6-hour peak at 82.9°F before evening clouds rolled in [3]. The market’s 0% YES probability reflects that no temperature range above the current frontrunner (78–79°F, at 93%) is plausible under today’s conditions [8]. Historical July averages for KSFO sit at 70°F, with daily highs typically ranging 65–79°F, making any outlier above 81°F highly improbable without a rare heat dome [1].

Traders should watch for sudden shifts in the marine layer or wind direction, as a breakdown in the WNW flow at 23 kts could briefly push temperatures higher, though forecasts remain stable with “mostly sunny and beautiful” conditions and 0% rain probability [3][6]. The National Weather Service and AccuWeather both confirm no heat advisories or coastal flood risks that would alter the thermal profile, and Wunderground’s official resolution source will reflect these consistent readings [2][6]. With settlement ending 2026-07-14T12:00:00Z, the window is closed for any late-day spike, and the 78–79°F range remains the only credible outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.