Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget is bracing for another scorching day as Europe’s 2026 heatwave intensifies, with the crowd assigning only a 1% probability to the highest temperature exceeding 34°C today. This low implied chance reflects the market’s confidence that conditions will remain within the expected summer band, despite the broader regional heat crisis. The current frontrunner for today’s peak is 34°C at 46%, followed by 35°C at 28%, suggesting traders expect a hot but not record-breaking day at the airport station [1].

Historically, July highs in Paris typically range between 24°C and 28°C, though the 2026 season has already shattered norms. In late June, France recorded its hottest day ever, with a national thermal indicator of 29.8°C and localized peaks exceeding 40°C, while Paris’ Parc Montsouris saw a record-low July night temperature of 25.0°C [4][8]. These precedents frame the 1% probability as a cautious bet against an extreme outlier, given that even the current heatwave has not consistently pushed airport readings beyond 35°C in recent days [2].

Traders should monitor Meteo France’s hourly red alert updates and Wunderground’s real-time feed for Paris-Le Bourget, as any sudden spike in cloud cover or wind could cap temperatures. The settlement depends solely on the highest recorded Celsius value at that station by 12:00 UTC, with no adjustment for urban heat effects elsewhere in the city [1]. With the heatwave expected to persist through the week, volatility may rise if new forecasts suggest a breakthrough above 35°C [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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