Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris has already spent the day in a fairly ordinary summer pattern, and the market is now being decided by the *last few hours* of how warm the city gets rather than by any earlier volatility. The settlement source is Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, so the key question is whether the station’s maximum for the day ends up in the 28°C or 29°C area, or slips lower if cloud cover or a late-day breeze caps the afternoon rise.

The historical frame is straightforward: early August in Paris often produces highs in the mid-20s, but the distribution has enough spread to make high-20s outcomes common in warm spells. Meteo-Paris puts the 1 August record maximum at 35.5°C, while broader Paris climate references place the city’s August average high around 25°C, and the all-time Paris temperature record is far above that at 41.9°C in 2019.[2][8][14] That combination means a 0% price on a fixed temperature outcome should be read as a low-confidence tail rather than a statement that the weather cannot reach that level.

For traders, the main catalysts are observational rather than policy-driven: the live airport reading, any late-afternoon convective cloud, and whether the warmest part of the day has already passed before the settlement window closes. There are no special announcement risks here, so the relevant watchpoints are the station’s hourly progression and whether the day’s peak is set before the 12:00 UTC cut-off or after it; Paris sunrise and sunset timing also matter because late-day heating can be limited once solar input fades.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.