Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the actual high temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, which has just settled at 66°F according to the official Weather Underground report[4]. This reading is significantly below the 82°F threshold required for a "Yes" outcome, explaining the current 0% crowd-implied probability for that range. The settlement occurred within the final window, confirming the market has resolved definitively rather than remaining open for further volatility.

Historical patterns in New York City during June typically see daily highs ranging from 77°F to 92°F, with an average high of 85°F for the month[1]. However, recent comparable markets for early June dates, such as 8 June and 23 June, resolved to much cooler ranges of 74–75°F, indicating that mid-June can still experience unseasonably cool spells[2][3]. The 66°F reading on 24 June aligns with the lower end of these recent cool anomalies rather than the typical summer warmth, framing the 0% probability as a rational reflection of the actual weather data rather than an outlier error.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports for any subsequent data corrections, though the current 66°F reading is the definitive maximum for the day[8]. The primary dependency is the Weather Underground archive, which serves as the sole resolution source, and any future updates to that specific record would be the only catalyst for a market re-evaluation[4]. No new announcements are expected as the event has passed, and the focus now shifts entirely to verifying the archived data against the official NWS daily maximum of 75°F reported for the preceding day, which highlights the distinct coolness of the 24th[8]. The market stands resolved with the 66°F figure as the final truth.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.